GLOBAL INVESTMENT RESEARCH | July 2016
THE OLYMPICS
AND ECONOMICS
2016
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For
Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. For a list of authors, please see overleaf.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
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The Olympics and Economics 2016
Table of Contents
Francesco Garzarelli
+44 20 7774-5078
Goldman Sachs International
Kamakshya Trivedi
+44 20 7051-4005
kamakshy[email protected]
Goldman Sachs International
Alberto Ramos
+1 212 357-5768
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Mark Ozerov
+44 20 7774-1137
mark.ozero[email protected]
Goldman Sachs International
Authors:
Introduction: Modelling Medal Success in Rio 3
Forecasting Olympic Success, Economist Style 4
The Top Olympian: An Economist’s Pick 12
Brazil: Hoping for the Olympic Spirit to Lift the Animal Spirits of the Brazilian Economy 15
Disclosure Appendix 18
Introduction: Modelling Medal Success in Rio
Even economists like to have a little summer fun, at least every four years. In the
quadrennial Olympics and Economics report that follows, we explore the link
between a country’s economic, political and institutional traits and its medal
success, and we update our ever-popular medal predictions model to forecast
country medal counts at the Rio Games. We also explore the economic benefits (if
any) of hosting the Olympics—a question that’s top of mind with the prolonged
contraction in Brazil.
Before we (and the Games) begin, a few fun findings from our analysis:
Hosting is gold. Our model predicts a 30% boost to Brazil’s overall medal tally
n
relative to 2012 and a greater than 50% boost to gold alone—bringing their total
to a record 22.
Just not for the economy. The ~US$10bn spent on infrastructure and logistics isn
too small to stimulate Brazil’s US$1.8 trillion economy.
Or the guy who hosted last time. Expect the UK to lose 10% of its 2012 medaln
tally at the Rio Games, but still end third in the overall medals table.
The key to standing on the podium is sitting down. If you’re the UK, that is.n
Jokes aside, statistics show the country dominates in rowing, cycling and other
seated sports.
There’s an indoor/outdoor factor. The UK and Brazil are among the bestn
outdoor sportsmen, while many Asian countries fare better inside.
Starting something doesn’t mean you’ll finish well. Greece, the birthplace ofn
the Olympics, has poor sporting performance relative to what its economic
indicators suggest it could achieve.
It’s not a two-man race. The US and China dominate in total medals, but not inn
every sport. Whom to watch: Italian fencers, Korean archers and Brazilian
volleyballers.
Now without further ado, we bring you our main event: the 2016 Olympics and
Economics analysis and medal count predictions for Rio. We hope you enjoy reading.
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The Olympics and Economics 2016
Forecasting Olympic Success, Economist Style
Four years on from that golden summer of 2012 in London it is time for the summer
Olympics again, this time in the magical city of Rio de Janeiro. Ahead of the London
Games, we undertook a simple exercise to see if we could use macroeconomic
variables and statistical relationships to predict success at the Olympics, mostly to
add to the enjoyment of the event. Looking back, however, the predictions for medal
tallies were more accurate than we could ever have imagined, with the perfect
prediction for the total medals (65) for the UK, and picking 10 out of the top 11
countries in the gold medal tables and all the top 11 in the total medal tables
correctly being the standout highlights.
1.
We would not be good economists (or econometricians) if we did not acknowledge
the role of beginners’ luck or randomness here, typical in small samples. And
without an in-depth knowledge of elite athletes, recent performance metrics, and
event details, it would be surprising if broad econometric exercises based on
macroeconomic relationships weren’t only a very rough guide to predicting Olympic
success. Still, the predictive success of our last effort suggests that at least at the
level of a country it may be possible to identify the ingredients of winning. With that
in mind, but mostly because sporting events are often more enjoyable with some
“skin in the game”, we are making another effort at predicting Olympic medals.
Our model features the quality of growth environments, population, previous success, and
‘host effects’
As a reminder, our medal predictions below are based on a panel regression model
with time effects, where the explanatory variables are our proprietary Growth
Environment Score (GES), the size of the population, lagged medal attainment, a
dummy variable for the host (in this case Brazil) and a dummy variable for the
previous host (in this case the UK). All variables are statistically significant at a 10%
level.
2.
Our Growth Environment Score is a proprietary broad measure of growth conditions
across countries which we have aggregated annually since 1996. They are designed
to capture important features of the economic, political and institutional environment
that affect productivity performance and growth across countries, and we use these
scores to guide our thinking about countries’ long-term potential. Their inclusion in
the model reflects the simple insight that a country is more likely to produce
world class athletes in a world class environment; and while that is hard to
measure in a sporting context, we think our GES scores provide a useful and holistic
measure of a high quality environment that can be related to sporting success in
addition to economic success.
1.
The medal predictions in Gold goes to where growth environment is best – using our GES to predict
Olympic medals, July 2012 also holds up well in more rigourous comparisons
(http://www.topendsports.com/events/summer/medal-tally/predicted-analysis-2012.htm).
2.
Our calculations, forecasts and exhibits exclude Cuba, North Korea and Puerto Rico due to absence of
data on GES scores.
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There are two main differences compared to the model we used in 2012. First, there
is typically a significant boost to medal attainment that comes from hosting the
Olympic Games – according to our model estimates a roughly 50% boost in terms
of gold medals and a 20% boost to the total medal tally. Previously we had modelled
this in absolute units of medals, whereas now we uprate the host tally (in this case
Brazil) by a percentage increment relative to the previous Games. As Exhibit 2
shows, the UK gained 50% more golds in 2012 relative to the previous Games in
2008. Second, some of our most significant forecast misses in our previous
prediction exercise came in countries that were recent Olympic hosts and where we
forecast a much stronger performance than eventually achieved. In other words,
what the host effect giveth, it also taketh away. For example, Australia’s total medal
tally has been sliding since the outstanding performance at the Sydney Games of
2004 (with 58 medals), and similarly China, with 88 total medals at London 2012
underperformed our prediction of 98 total medals relative to the 100 achieved in the
Beijing 2008 Games. Our estimates suggest that previous hosts (in this case the UK)
lose roughly 10% of their overall medal tally and 15% of their gold medal tally at the
next Games.
In general, the model explains roughly 90% of the variation in medal attainment over
the past 5 Olympic Games and is better at predicting total medals relative to gold
medals – unsurprising given that the difference between winning a gold (versus
silver or bronze) comes down to one-hundredth or one-thousandth of a second. The
predictive performance of the model for the 2012 Games can be seen in Exhibit 1.
The 45 degree line represents a perfect forecast and the fact that most points
(representing total medal attainment by country) are close to that line suggests a
high degree of forecast accuracy.
One final caveat about the estimation and then we can dive into the medal
predictions. The ongoing controversy about Russia’s participation in the Rio Olympics
is especially hard for our modelling approach to incorporate. Moreover, since Russia
typically is among the top 5 medal winners, this can have significant knock-on effect
on the rest of the predictions in a way that the non-participation of a smaller country
would not. Based on the information available at the time of going to print – that
Russia is unlikely to participate in Athletic events and only partially in a range of other
Olympic sports – we subtract the share of medals that Russia won in these specific
competitions in the London 2012 Games from its 2016 prediction, and redistribute
those medals to the rest of the countries in line with their 2012 Athletics medal
achievements. We recognise the crudeness of this approach, which is likely to affect
the accuracy of the final medal predictions, but it is the most straightforward
adjustment under the current circumstances.
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Exhibit 3 presents our predictions for gold medals and Total medals for 2016. They
reveal that in general, gold does go to where the growth environment is best –
countries with better GES scores and higher populations tend to get the most
medals. In terms of changes relative to 2012, three things stand out.
F
irst, showcasing the host effect, we expect Brazil to get 22 medals in total – its
n
b
est achievement at the Summer Games ever – and 5 gold medals – equalling its
tally at the 2004 Athens Olympics.
Second, the biggest drops in predicted medal attainment occur in Russia – for the
n
reasons discussed above – and in the UK – as the host effect starts to fade.
Third, we expect to see a small amount of democratisation of the Olympic leaguen
table, with a number of smaller countries improving their performance relative to
2012 at the expense of the traditional Olympic heavyweights who dominate
medal attainment at the top of the table.
Exhibit 1: Our econometric model did a good job in predicting total
medal outcomes in 2012
Dots represent countries’ actual 2012 medal count against the model
prediction
Exhibit 2: A significant and measurable “host effect” at Olympic
Games should benefit Brazil at Rio 2016
Percentage increase in the medal count of host countries relative to the
prior Olympic Games
Source: Sports Reference, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Sports Reference, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Exhibit 3: 2016 Olympics medal count prediction
Forecasts and exhibits exclude Cuba, North Korea and Puerto Rico due to absence of data on GES scores.
Source: Sports Reference, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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The Olympics and Economics 2016
Sporting dominance – which are the countries to beat at each Olympic sport?
Our predictions for medal attainment at the Rio 2016 Olympics are based on a top
down approach using a parsimonious model. But even if such a model cannot
predict success at the level of each sport, it is still interesting to know which
countries are the best at each Olympic sport.
To address this question, we construct a dominance score for each sport and
country using historical data on medal attainment. We do this calculation in three
steps: first, we calculate a medal attainment per country per sport per year index by
assigning three points to every gold medal, two points to every silver medal and one
point to bronze; second, we calculate a decaying moving average of this index (with
the highest weight given to the most recent (London) Games, and rapidly decreasing
weights thereafter)
3.
; finally, we express the dominance index as a percentage of
total medal scores for each sport, so that we can compare the index across sports
with different number of events.The value of the index ranges between 0% (a
country did not receive any medal in a particular sport over the last 5 Olympic
Games) to 100% (a country received all medals in the particular sport).
The resulting table of sporting dominance is presented in Exhibit 4. A few interesting
observations stand out.
China is very dominant in the sports that it dominates. China has some ofn
the highest dominance scores across all the sports. In other words, it has the
largest margin of leadership in the sports it is best at: for example, China boasts
69% domination in table tennis, 57% in badminton and 52% in diving.
US dominates sports with the largest medal hauls on offer. Unsurprisingly,n
the US and China dominate the dominance table, but there is an important
difference. While US dominance is not as overwhelming as Chinese dominance,
it is focused on sports with the most events and medals on offer, namely
swimming and athletics.
Beware of Italian Fencers, Korean Archers and Brazilian Volleyballers. It is notn
just the Olympic giants (China and the US) that dominate all the sports. With a
dominance score of 44%, South Korean archers have been the team to beat for
several Olympic Games (South Korea also dominates taekwondo but by a much
smaller margin). Similarly, Italian fencers – excuse the bad pun – have been at the
cutting edge of the sport for many Games. And host Brazil has been dominating
the volleyball competition over the last couple of Olympic Games.
Jokes apart, the UK does in fact dominate sports that involve sitting down.n
It is often said in jest that the UK is only good at sports that involve sitting down,
but our dominance scores show that there is firm statistical basis for this claim. It
is dominant in rowing, cycling, sailing and second most dominant in
equestrianism behind Germany.
3.
Medal attainment at the 2012 games are given a 0.5 weight; subsequent games are weighted 0.3 (for
2008), 0.1 (for 2004), 0.05 (for 2000), and 0.05 (for 1996).
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Exhibit 4: Country dominance score by Olympic sport
Scores represent countries’ medal attainment as a proportion of total, with greater weights on recent Games and gold. See text for details.
Source: Sports Reference, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Catching up, forging ahead, neck and neck, and falling behind
The process by which countries experience income growth, catch-up with the
technological frontier or fall behind is one of the central issues that economists try to
address. One of the seminal articles about this was published almost exactly 30
years ago in the summer of 1986, titled “Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling
Behind” in the Journal of Economic History.
4
.
While the author was interested in
countries catching up or forging ahead in income and productivity terms, the same
process is also ongoing across Olympic sports. Below we highlight four examples of
this:
Catching up in judo: While Japan has been the dominant country in terms ofn
medal attainment in judo, this dominance has faded markedly over the past two
Olympic Games. A group of countries have been eating away at its dominance,
including France, Russia and also hosts Brazil. Will the ‘host effect’ help Brazil
leapfrog the other two?
Forging ahead in swimming: The dominance of the US in swimmingn
competitions has grown stronger over the past two Games, in particular at the
expense of Australia. Chinese swimming has been getting consistently better in
the last few competitions, but it is still significantly behind the US in terms of
medal attainment. With some of the largest medal hauls available in swimming, if
the US continues to forge ahead, it will only strengthen its hold at the top of the
overall medals table in Rio 2016.
4.
Abramovitz Moses, Journal of Economic History, June 1986.
Exhibit 5: Catching up in judo
Scores represent countries’ medal attainment as a proportion of total,
with greater weights on gold.
Exhibit 6: Forging ahead in swimming
Scores represent countries’ medal attainment as a proportion of total,
with greater weights on gold.
Source: Sports Reference, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Sports Reference, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Neck and neck in sailing: Great Britain and Australia are two sailingn
heavyweights and were locked neck and neck in terms of sailing medals
achievement at the last Olympic Games. It will be exciting to see if one of them
manages to edge in front of the other in Rio 2016. Brazil has also been a
formidable competitor here in the past, and while the ‘host effect’ manifests
itself in many different ways, knowledge of local wind and sea conditions may be
a vital advantage.
Falling behind in badminton: The Chinese contingent are likely to dominaten
badminton at Rio 2016, but in part that is because strong competitors from
previous Olympic Games – Indonesia and South Korea – have fallen meaningfully
behind. London 2012 saw their worst performance in the past five Games, and it
will be interesting to see if they can start reversing this at Rio 2016.
Let the Games begin!
Kamakshya Trivedi and Mark Ozerov
Exhibit 7: Neck and neck in sailing
Scores represent countries’ medal attainment as a proportion of total,
with greater weights on gold.
Exhibit 8: Falling behind in badminton
Scores represent countries’ medal attainment as a proportion of total,
with greater weights on gold
Source: Sports Reference, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Sports Reference , Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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The Olympics and Economics 2016
The Top Olympian: An Economist’s Pick
Just like people, some countries are more ‘sporty’ than others. To qualify this
statement, we look at the share of Olympic medals (over the total contested) won
by each country participating in the Games between 1980 and 2012. We then
measure the relative performance of countries controlling for how populous, rich
(income per capita), and ‘efficiently run’ they are. Efficiency here is defined via a
series of economic, political and institutional traits captured by our proprietary
Growth Environment Scores (GES). We also account for a ‘host country’ effect.
The accompanying chart ranks the 10 top and the 10 bottom countries in all sports
disciplines once the controls mentioned above are applied. Columns are labelled
with the average number of medals won by the country between 2000 and 2012.
Countries which have conquered less than three medals over the past 4 summer
Olympics have been excluded. As can be seen, among all countries taking part in the
Olympics, US, China and Russia appear to be punching above their weight,
especially over the past 4 editions of the Games. By contrast, Greece, Australia,
Venezuela, in particular, have a poor sporting performance in relation to what
economic indicators say they could achieve.
We then look at top and bottom performers among the Euro area countries. Being a
more homogeneous bunch (given their shared institutions), this may enhance the
statistical quality of the results. Among this group of countries, controlling for their
population, income and broader efficiency, the top country in terms of physical
sporting prowess is France, followed by Netherlands and Italy. Greece – birthplace of
the Olympics – is instead lagging behind.
Exhibit 9: China, Russia, US Punch Above Their (Macro) Weight
Country out/underperformance relative to predicted medal count (2000-12 average)
Source: Sports Reference, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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The Olympics and Economics 2016
Olympic athletes: Indoor or outdoor types?
Some countries are more successful than others at indoor disciplines, while some
excel in open air activities. To track this, we count the number of medals each
country has won in indoor sports as share of total medal count in indoor sports for
all countries since the 1996 Olympic Games.
In this context, some countries are more ‘specialized’ in indoor disciplines. We look
at the medal count in indoor disciplines as share of total medals won by each
country. As can be seen in the chart below, in China, Japan and Korea athletes seem
to perform better in indoor sports than outdoor ones. By contrast, the most outdoor
sportsmen appear to be those of the UK, Brazil and Germany.
Some countries are better fighters: in boxing, wrestling, judo and taekwondo, most
medals are won by Asian countries. Japan appears to be a specialist: on average
51% of its medals are in these four Olympic disciplines.
Exhibit 10: France, Netherlands and Italy the More Sporty Among
EMU Countries
Country out/underperformance relative to predicted medal count (2000-12
average)
Source: Sports Reference, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 11: Country medals in indoor sports as a percentage of total
medals in indoor sports (1996-2012)
Exhibit 12: Country medals in indoor sports as a percentage of total
country medals (1996-2012)
Source: Sports Reference, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Sports Reference, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Team-oriented or individualist athletes?
Some countries fare better at team sports than others. In relation to the total medal
count in team sports, Germany excels, followed by Australia and Great Britain. At the
other extreme are the large Asian countries like China, Japan and South Korea.
Brazil’s medal count, however, has historically been dominated by team sports,
representing more than 50% of its medals in the last 5 Olympic Games. At the other
end remain the Asian countries where individual performance appears to prevail.
Francesco Garzarelli and Lorenzo Incoronato
5
.
5.
Lorenzo Incoronato is an intern in the Global Macro Markets team.
Exhibit 13: Country medals in team sports as a percentage of total
medals in team sports (1996-2012)
Exhibit 14: Country medals in team sports as a percentage of total
country medals (1996-2012)
S
ource: Sports Reference, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S
ource: Sports Reference, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Brazil: Hoping for the Olympic Spirit to Lift the Animal Spirits of
the Brazilian Economy
“The important thing in life is not the triumph but the struggle, the essential thing is
not to have conquered but to have fought well.”
Pierre de Frédy, Baron de Coubertin (Jan 1863 – Sept 1937); French educator,
historian, and founder of the International Olympic Committee.
The glamour of Rio awaits visitors and athletes
The Rio 2016 Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games will be held in Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil. This is the first time a South American country will host the Olympics, and the
first time in a Latin American country since Mexico City in 1968. From Aug 5-21
(Sept 7-18 for the Paralympic Games) more than 10,000 athletes from 206
delegations will celebrate the spirit of the Olympics and compete at the highest level
in 42 different sport disciplines.
Rio de Janeiro is the second largest city in Brazil (with a population of just over 6mn)
and the most popular tourist destination in South America. Rio is known for its
striking natural setting in the Guanabara Bay, sandy beaches, carnival celebrations, a
diverse musical heritage and, of course, its passion for soccer and beach volleyball.
Rio became a World Heritage Site in July 2012: the first city to receive this title from
UNESCO in the Natural Landscape category.
At the 2012 London Olympics, Brazil collected 17 medals (three of which were gold).
Brazil has excelled in volleyball in Olympic competition: its women’s team won gold
and the men’s team silver in London, as well as silver (men) and bronze (women) in
beach volleyball. Brazil is one of the top 10 world economies in US Dollar-
denominated GDP terms (PPP-adjusted), and the fifth largest country in terms of
land mass and population, but finished only in 22nd place (behind Spain) in the total
medal count in London. As has been the experience in other hosting nations, Brazil
hopes to benefit in 2016 from the home Olympic dividend and collect a number of
medals that is more in line with its relative economic weight in the world.
Investment related to the Games too small to lift a large economy
The Olympics are always a time of hope and good feelings. It is a unique opportunity
to celebrate cultural diversity and friendly athletic competition. But these are not the
happiest of times in Brazil as the economy is going through one of the longest and
deepest economic contractions in recorded history, the unemployment rate has
surged to double digits, and federal and local governments are grappling with
deteriorating public finances.
Hosting the 2014 FIFA Soccer World Cup and the upcoming 2016 Summer
Olympic/Paralympic Games increased private and public investment in infrastructure
and related logistics. Investment related to the Games can be divided in three main
buckets. The first is the (operating) cost to actually run the event. This is estimated,
according to official sources, at under R$8bn (US$2.4bn) and will be 100%
sourced/funded by the private sector, including sponsors. The second bucket
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includes investment/expenses related to sports facilities and other projects that
would not have been undertaken if Rio had not hosted the event. These investments
are officially estimated to exceed R$7bn (US$2.1bn), of which roughly 60% will be
funded by the private sector. The third bucket includes projects that either anticipate
or increase federal, state and municipal investments in infrastructure and public
policy programs (e.g., expansion of subway lines). The goal is to increase the number
of people benefitted by the Games. Many of these investments have been funded
through public-private partnerships (PPPs) and are estimated by government sources
to reach approximately R$25bn (US$7.6bn) with roughly 40% of the cost funded by
private sector sources.
Overall, we believe the World Cup and Olympics related investment was just too
small to generate a significant economic dividend/impulse given the sheer size of
the economy (≈ US$1.8 trillion). Furthermore, due to a number of large
macroeconomic imbalances that have grown and permeated the economy and the
severe drop in confidence indicators, total investment spending has actually been
contracting uninterruptedly for 2.5 years. Gross Fixed Investment has now declined
for ten consecutive quarters (at a significantly high average rate of -11.6% qoq sa,
annualized). Overall, gross fixed investment retrenched by a cumulative 27.0%
between 4Q2013 and 1Q2016, and is now at the same level as 2Q2009.
Not the happiest of economic times
Brazil went from strong single-digit growth as recently as five years ago to a deep 2-
year economic recession that brought the GDP level to that of 4Q2010 with a
cumulative decline in per capital real GDP of 9.0%. The sharp deterioration in
economic performance reflects a combination of domestic and external factors. The
external backdrop turned less friendly: commodity prices declined, which resulted in
a deterioration in Brazil’s terms of trade, and global liquidity conditions became more
exigent. But the main driver of the sharp deterioration in the economy was the
heterodox/interventionist domestic policy mix, which ended up creating a number of
large imbalances. Expansionary fiscal and credit policies led to a meaningful decline
Exhibit 15: Severe Domestic Demand Retrenchment Exhibit 16: Deep and Prolonged Contraction of Gross Fixed
Investment
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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in the savings rate of the economy and a deterioration in both the current account
and the fiscal balances. Rather than accelerating growth, the policy response ended
up incubating and accommodating inflationary pressures, and hurting the investment
outlook. This raised concerns about the policy approach, hurting consumer and
business sentiment, and deeply depressing the animal spirits in the economy.
B
razil is currently going through the early stages of a complex political transition
(which would need to be confirmed, or reversed, by a final Senate floor
impeachment vote likely in late August/early September). Given the economic
performance of recent years and unsettled political backdrop, markets have invested
a significant amount of hope in this transition, sustained by the expectation that it
could lead to a macro policy regime-shift, and a more stable and cooperative political
equilibrium. Part of the Brazilian financial markets’ positive performance in recent
months was admittedly driven by expectations that a new administration could: (1)
be more inclined to embrace the measures and structural reforms needed to
rebalance the economy and address the rapidly deteriorating fiscal picture, and (2)
prove capable of co-opting Congress and building the necessary political consensus
to move forward with the critically needed fiscal and structural reform agenda.
Note: Equal-weighted aggregate of retail, services, construction and industrial confidence indices.
There are now budding signs that the recessionary forces that have gripped the
economy are easing at the margin. Consumer and business confidence indicators
seem to have turned the corner and have started to improve in recent months, albeit
modestly and from extremely depressed levels. This could be a prelude to the end of
the recession and better days ahead, particularly if the recovery in sentiment is
supported and hauled up by tangible measures to deepen the needed fiscal
adjustment and rebalance the economy. In all, as the country welcomes thousands
of athletes and visitors and cheers the local favorites, it silently hopes that the
soaring Olympic spirit will also help lift the animal spirits of the Brazilian economy
and bring it back to the podium reserved for the top performers.
Alberto Ramos
Exhibit 17: Weak but Firming Consumer Confidence Exhibit 18: Business Confidence Rebounding from Record Lows
Note: Equal-weighted aggregate of retail, services, construction and
industrial confidence indices.
Source: FGV Source: FGV
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Disclosure Appendix
Reg AC
We, Francesco Garzarelli, Kamakshya Trivedi, Alberto Ramos and Mark Ozerov, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately
reflect our personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division.
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29 July 2016 Page 18
Goldman Sachs
The Olympics and Economics 2016
